Chapter 6 · Designing the study

How do you run a fair trial?

Phases, randomisation, blinding, allocation concealment, ITT and trial registration.

63 TNMGRMU questions answered hereset 74 times, 1994–2025

The problem first

You are a second-year Anaesthesiology resident comparing two anti-emetics for your thesis. The computer-generated allocation list is pinned inside the OT store. When a patient looks very anxious, you give that patient the next “stronger” drug on the list instead of the one in sequence.

The co-PG who gives the drug also scores nausea at 6 hours, and three patients who stopped the new drug are left out of the analysis. At the viva the examiner asks one question.

“If you could see the list, how was the allocation random?”

Start here

Why not give the new drug and compare with the patients who did not get it?

If the doctor decides who gets the new drug, the groups differ before treatment starts. In a randomised controlled trial (RCT), chance decides, so the groups are similar on average in factors that were measured and factors that were not.

Doctor chooses the groupmilder patients get the new drugNew drugUsual drugChance chooses the groupa similar mix in both groupsNew drugUsual drug
milder illnesssicker
Doctors tend to give a new treatment to patients they expect to do well, and the new drug then looks better even if it does nothing. A factor that affects the outcome and differs between the groups is a confounder. Random allocation decides who gets which treatment. It is different from random sampling, which decides who enters a study (see the sampling chapter).

Confounding and other sources of bias are covered in the bias and validity chapter. Where RCTs sit among other designs is in the study designs chapter.

When is it ethical to randomise?

Only when it is genuinely uncertain which treatment is better. Freedman (1987) proposed clinical equipoise: genuine uncertainty “within the expert medical community” about the preferred treatment, not necessarily uncertainty in the individual investigator. An investigator who finds that one treatment is better is ethically obliged to offer that treatment. When interim results show clear benefit or harm, the trial can be stopped under rules planned in advance (see interim analyses).

Drug development

What happens in each phase of a drug trial?

A new drug is tested in stages. Each phase answers a different question before more people are exposed to it.

Phase 0ExploratoryIND studyVery small dosesTarget reached?Phase IHumanpharmacologyVolunteersTolerance, dosePhase IITherapeuticexploratoryPatientsDoes it work?Phase IIITherapeuticconfirmatoryLarger groupsConfirm benefitPhase IVTherapeuticuseAfter approvalHarms, new usesmarketing approval
The study types in bold are the names used by ICH E8 (1997), which notes that phases describe the usual order of development and are not the same thing as study types. Phase 0 trials follow the US FDA exploratory Investigational New Drug (IND) guidance: very small, subtherapeutic doses in a few people, to see whether the drug acts on its target before larger trials (Kummar et al., 2008). Phase III studies are intended to provide an adequate basis for marketing approval. Phase IV studies are done after approval.
PhaseWho takes partMain questionUsual design
0A few volunteers or patientsDoes the drug reach and act on its target?Subtherapeutic doses, pharmacokinetic and target-effect studies
IHealthy volunteers, or patients when the drug is toxic (for example, cancer drugs)Tolerance, safe dose range, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamicsDose escalation. May be open, baseline-controlled or randomised (ICH E8)
IIPatients with the conditionDoes it show therapeutic effect, and at what dose?Early studies may compare with baseline status. Later ones are usually randomised and concurrently controlled (ICH E8)
IIILarger groups of patients, often in several centresConfirm benefit and safety in the intended populationRandomised controlled trial
IVPatients using the approved drugUncommon adverse effects, use in practice, new indicationsObservational studies and trials

Why phase III trials miss rare adverse effects: if none of n treated patients has a particular adverse event, the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for its risk is still about 3 ÷ n. Hanley and Lippman-Hand (1983) described this rule of three.

No serious reaction in 600 patients: upper 95% limit ≈ 3 ÷ 600 = 0.5%, or 1 in 200

Teaching example. The exact binomial limit is 1 − 0.051/600 = 0.498%. A reaction that affects 1 in 2,000 patients is absent from a trial of 600 patients 74% of the time, which is one reason for phase IV surveillance.

Dose finding

How can the effective dose be found with a small number of patients?

In an up-and-down design, each patient's dose depends on the response of the patient before. The doses move towards the dose that works in half of patients, the ED50.

  1. Choose a starting dose from earlier studies, a fixed dose step, and a response that is clearly yes or no, such as adequate sedation.
  2. Give the starting dose to the first patient and record whether it worked.
  3. If it worked, give the next patient one step less. If it failed, give the next patient one step more.
  4. Continue for the planned number of patients, then estimate the ED50.

The method comes from Dixon and Mood (1948) and is now commonly used in anaesthesia research (Pace and Stylianou, 2007), for example to estimate the ED50 of sedatives and vasopressors. Many of these studies calculate the ED50 as the mean of the midpoints of crossover pairs, where a failed dose is followed by a dose that worked, and some continue until they have at least six such pairs.

  • The design is built to estimate the ED50. For the dose that works in 90% or 95% of patients, biased coin or continual reassessment designs are preferred (Görges et al., 2017).
  • Each dose depends on the previous response, so the response must be known before the next patient is dosed, and the patients should be similar.
  • Pace and Stylianou (2007) show risks in statistical methods commonly used in published up-and-down reports, and Oron et al. (2022) note that the design is often implemented poorly and give practical recommendations.

Interactive

Change the starting dose and the dose step, and watch the doses move towards the ED50

Each run simulates one up-and-down study of a made-up sedative. The true ED50 is known here, so you can compare the estimate with it.

Try this: set the starting dose to 28 mg and count how many patients receive doses far above the ED50 before the first dose fails. Then change the step from 2 mg to 4 mg and watch the doses vary more widely around the ED50.

Teaching example with made-up numbers: Drug D is a made-up sedative whose true ED50 is set at 20 mg. Each simulated patient either responds or does not, by chance, with a higher chance at higher doses.

14 mg

From earlier studies or a best guess

Dose step
Patients
010203040dose (mg)patients in order of enrolmenttrue ED50estimate
filled: dose worked, next patient one step loweropen ring: dose failed, next patient one step higherred box: crossover pair
19.3 mgestimated ED50 (true value 20 mg)

Crossover pairs (a failed dose followed by a dose that worked): 8. The estimate is the mean of their midpoints: 15.0, 19.0, 21.0, 21.0, 17.0, 19.0, 21.0, 21.0 mg.

First change of response at patient 2. Patients given a dose within 2 mg of the true ED50: 23 of 30.

Randomisation

How do you decide who gets which treatment?

Use a chance process that nobody can predict: a computer-generated list or a random-number table. Alternate patients, date of birth, hospital number and day of admission are predictable, so they are not randomisation.

Simpleeach patient separately7 : 13With 20 patients, a split of 7 : 13 or worse happens 26% of the timeBlockblocks of 410 : 10Each block holds 2 A and 2 B, so the groups are equal after every blockStratifiedblocks within strataMild6 : 6Severe4 : 4Mild and severe patients are each split equally between A and BTreatment ATreatment B
Simple randomisation: each allocation is independent of the last. It cannot be predicted, but small trials can end up with unequal groups. Block randomisation: allocation is balanced within each block. A block of 4 has 6 possible orders (AABB, ABAB, ABBA, BAAB, BABA, BBAA). ICH E9 advises that investigators should not know the block length, and using two or more block lengths chosen at random serves the same purpose. Stratified randomisation: patients are first divided by an important prognostic factor, such as disease severity or centre, and then randomised in blocks within each stratum.

The 26% comes from the binomial distribution: with 20 patients and a 50% chance of A for each, the probability that one group has 7 or fewer is 0.263. An exact 10 : 10 split happens only 17.6% of the time.

Other methods: minimisation (dynamic allocation) assigns each new patient so as to reduce imbalance across several factors at once. Cluster randomisation allocates whole groups such as villages or wards. Unequal allocation, for example 2 : 1, gives more patients the new treatment. ICH E9 notes that more than two or three stratification factors is rarely necessary.

Known and unknown factors: stratify on the few factors known to affect the outcome, such as centre or severity, and rely on randomisation to balance the factors nobody has measured. Block randomisation also keeps the groups equal in size throughout recruitment, so if the kind of patient referred changes during the months of the trial, both groups are affected alike.

Randomising within one patient: when two eyes, two sides of the mouth or two similar lesions in the same patient can receive different treatments, chance decides which side receives which. Each patient is their own control, and the analysis must use paired methods. The design is unsuitable when a treatment given on one side can affect the other side, as with a drug absorbed into the circulation. Matching in observational studies is covered in the study designs chapter.

Interactive

Allocate patients by three methods and compare group sizes and severe patients in each group

The figure above shows one list of 20 allocations. Here chance draws a new list each time, for the same patients.

Try this: with 20 patients and simple randomisation, press "Allocate again" a few times and watch the group sizes change. Then choose Stratified and compare the average difference in severe patients over 200 repeats.

Teaching example: patients arrive one at a time, and each has a 30% chance of severe disease, a strong prognostic factor.

20
Method
patients in order of arrival
group A (filled)group B (open ring)red ring: severe disease
8 : 12patients in group A : group B

Severe patients: 4 in group A and 3 in group B.

Average over 200 repeats with 20 patients: group sizes differ by 3.5, severe patients differ by 1.9.

Each patient has a 50% chance of each group, whatever happened to the patients before. Group sizes and the number of severe patients in each group can differ by chance, most of all in small trials.

Two types of hiding

Who must not know the allocation, and when?

These are two different safeguards. Allocation concealment hides the next allocation until the patient has been enrolled. Blinding hides the treatment received after allocation.

Eligible patientconsents, enrolledAllocationrevealedTreatment andfollow-upOutcome assessedand analysedallocation concealmentthe recruiter cannot knowthe next allocationblindingparticipants, clinicians, outcome assessorsand analysts do not know the treatment givenSingle blind: the participant does not know, or the investigator does not (ICH E9)Double blind: neither the participant nor the investigators know (ICH E9)Triple blind: no fixed definition. State which groups were blinded
Without concealment, the person recruiting can steer patients towards or away from a group, as in the case above. Concealment methods include a central telephone or web system, or sequentially numbered, opaque, sealed containers (CONSORT 2025, item 18). Concealment is possible in every trial. Blinding is not: a surgeon cannot be unaware of the operation performed. In 250 trials, those with inadequate allocation concealment exaggerated odds ratios by 41%, and those that were not double-blind by 17% (Schulz et al., 1995).

Comparison

Allocation concealment or blinding: what is the difference?

FeatureAllocation concealmentBlinding
What is hiddenThe next allocation, before a patient is assignedThe treatment received, after assignment
PreventsSelection bias at enrolmentDifferences in care (performance bias) and in outcome assessment (detection bias)
Always possible?Yes, in every randomised trialNo. Surgery, physiotherapy and many devices cannot be hidden from the person giving them
MethodsCentral telephone or web randomisation. Sequentially numbered, opaque, sealed containersIdentical placebo, double-dummy technique, sham procedure, blinded outcome assessor
CONSORT 2025Item 18 (mechanism) and item 19 (who had access to the sequence)Item 20a (who was blinded) and item 20b (how)
Failure looks likeThe allocation list is visible to the recruiterThe outcome assessor knows which drug the patient received

Interactive

Read a trial and name the safeguard that failed

Random sequence generation makes the next allocation unpredictable. Concealment hides it until the patient is enrolled. Blinding hides the treatment after allocation.

Try this: read each trial, choose the safeguard that failed, then read the explanation. You can change your answer.

Trial 1 of 9 · teaching scenarios

The computer-generated allocation list is pinned inside the OT store. When a patient looks anxious, the resident reads the list and gives that patient the "stronger" drug.

Choose a safeguard to see the explanation.

Blinding

Who is blinded: single, double or triple?

State which people did not know the allocation. The labels single, double and triple blind are used in different ways in different papers.

ICH E9 (1998) defines a double-blind trial as one in which “neither the subject nor any of the investigator or sponsor staff who are involved in the treatment or clinical evaluation of the subjects are aware of the treatment received”. In a single-blind trial the investigator knows the treatment and the participant does not, or the other way round. In an open-label trial everyone knows. Triple blind has no agreed definition. It usually means that outcome assessors or data analysts were also unaware.

Some trials and registries use the word masking for the same safeguard. ICH E9 opens section 2.3.1 with “Blinding or masking is intended to limit the occurrence of conscious and unconscious bias”, and CTRI records “blinding and masking” for every trial.

In a survey of 91 internal medicine physicians, Devereaux and colleagues (2001) found 10, 17 and 15 different interpretations of single, double and triple blinding, and 25 textbooks gave 5, 9 and 7 different definitions. CONSORT 2025 item 20a asks authors to say who was blinded: participants, care providers, outcome assessors or data analysts.

How blinding is achieved

  • Active drug and placebo made identical in appearance, taste, smell and packaging, and labelled only with a trial number.
  • Double-dummy: when the two drugs look different (tablet and injection), each patient receives one active drug and one matching placebo.
  • Sham procedures for some surgical or device trials.
  • Outcome assessment by a person who has no contact with treatment decisions, and analysis with groups coded as A and B.

When the blind may be broken

  • For one patient, when knowing the treatment is essential for that patient's care (ICH E9). ICMR 2017 (section 7.4.1) requires an unblinding mechanism to be available for serious adverse events.
  • For planned interim analyses, by an independent data monitoring committee. Staff running the trial stay blind to the results (ICH E9).
  • For everyone at the end, after the data are cleaned. Every intentional or accidental unblinding is recorded and reported (ICH E9).

Control group

What can the control group receive, and why must it be studied at the same time?

The control group shows what would have happened to similar patients without the new treatment. Without one, improvement from natural recovery, the placebo effect or regression to the mean is credited to the treatment.

ControlWhat the group receivesWhen it is usedMain limitation
PlaceboAn identical preparation with no active ingredientNo proven treatment exists, or as an add-on to standard careLimited by ethics (next section)
Active controlThe standard proven treatmentA proven treatment existsShowing that the new treatment is not worse needs a margin set in advance
No treatment or usual careNothing extra, or the care patients would receive anywayPragmatic trials, and when a placebo cannot be madePatients and staff know the allocation, so blind the outcome assessors
Sham procedureA procedure that imitates the intervention without its active stepSurgical, device and physiotherapy trialsThe sham carries its own risks and needs strong justification
Historical controlPatients treated in an earlier period, taken from records or earlier trialsRare diseases, when a concurrent control is not feasibleSelection, diagnosis and supportive care may have changed, and allocation is not random
FeatureConcurrent randomised controlHistorical control
PatientsEnrolled and followed in the same period as the treated groupTreated in an earlier period
AllocationBy chanceNot random
RecruitmentBoth groups recruitedOnly the new-treatment group recruited
Main problemCost and timePatient selection, diagnostic methods and supportive care may differ between periods
Effect on the resultGroups comparable at the startTends to favour the new treatment

Sacks, Chalmers and Smith (1982) found six therapies studied both ways. 44 of 56 trials with historical controls (79%) found the new therapy better, compared with 10 of 50 randomised trials (20%). The difference came mainly from the control groups: historical control patients generally did worse than randomised control patients.

Regression to the mean: patients often enter a trial when a measurement such as blood pressure or a pain score is at its worst. Measured again, many are closer to their usual level even without treatment, because part of an extreme value is chance variation. A concurrent control group shows the same change, so the difference between the groups is still a fair estimate of the treatment effect.

Control group

When can the control group receive a placebo?

A placebo looks like the active treatment but has no active ingredient. It separates the effect of the drug from spontaneous improvement, the placebo effect and the expectations of patients and observers.

The Declaration of Helsinki (2024, paragraph 33) requires a new intervention to be tested against the best proven intervention, except when “no proven intervention exists”, or when there are compelling scientific reasons for placebo and participants “will not be subject to additional risks of serious or irreversible harm”. ICH E9 notes that for serious illnesses with a treatment proven in superiority trials, a placebo-controlled trial may be considered unethical.

ICMR 2017 (section 7.4) allows a placebo when:

  • there is no established effective therapy
  • withholding an established therapy would cause only temporary discomfort or delay in relief, not serious harm
  • the disease is self-limited
  • an active comparator would not give scientifically reliable results, and placebo adds no risk of serious or irreversible harm.

Safeguards listed by ICMR include clear withdrawal criteria, intensive monitoring and rescue medication, an add-on design (placebo or new drug added to standard care), and unequal randomisation such as 2 : 1 so fewer patients receive placebo. Consent and compensation are covered in the research ethics chapter.

Outcomes

Which outcome should decide the trial?

Choose one primary outcome before the trial starts. It should measure a benefit that matters to patients, and the sample size is calculated for it.

ICH E9 (section 2.2.2) says the primary variable “should be the variable capable of providing the most clinically relevant and convincing evidence directly related to the primary objective of the trial”, and that “there should generally be only one primary variable”. Other outcomes are secondary. Redefining the primary variable after unblinding “will almost always be unacceptable”, which is one reason to register it before enrolment.

Type of outcomeExamplesAdvantageCaution
Clinical outcomeDeath, stroke, fracture, hospital admissionMatters directly to patientsNeeds many patients or long follow-up
Surrogate outcomeBlood pressure, HbA1c, viral load, tumour responseSmaller and quicker trialsMay not predict the clinical outcome (ICH E9, section 2.2.6)
Composite outcomeDeath, myocardial infarction or stroke, whichever occurs firstMore events, so fewer patients are neededThe components may differ in importance and in how the treatment affects them. Report each component
Patient-reported outcomePain score, quality of lifeThe patient's own view of benefitNeeds a validated scale and blinding
Encainide orflecainidesurrogate improvedPremature ventricular beatssuppressed on HolterFewer sudden deaths(expected)Effects the surrogatedid not measureTotal mortalitydrugs: 56/730 (7.7%)placebo: 22/725 (3.0%)the surrogate improved, but more patients died
A real trial drawn as a teaching figure. In the Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial (CAST), patients after myocardial infarction whose premature ventricular beats were suppressed by a drug during a titration phase were randomised to that drug or placebo. With encainide or flecainide, total mortality over an average of 10 months was 56 of 730 patients (7.7%), against 22 of 725 (3.0%) on placebo, a relative risk of 2.5. The drugs suppressed the arrhythmia, but more patients died, and this part of the trial was stopped (CAST Investigators, 1989).

ICH E9 (section 2.2.6) warns that a surrogate “may not be a true predictor of the clinical outcome of interest”, and that there have been many instances where treatments with a highly positive effect on a proposed surrogate were detrimental to patients' clinical outcome. Accepted surrogates are those believed to be reliable predictors of clinical benefit in that indication. For pain, function or quality of life, use a validated scale. Reliability and validity of scales are covered in the Practical Statistics book.

Analysis

Whom do you analyse: everyone randomised, or only those who followed the protocol?

Randomisation makes the groups comparable only as long as you keep them as they were randomised.

Intention to treatPer protocolall randomisedadherent onlyDrug A24/100 = 24%16/80 = 20%Control30/100 = 30%27/90 = 30%Risk ratio, Drug A vs control0.800.67leaving out the 20 who stopped Drug A makes it look better
took the treatment as allocated (each figure = 5 patients)stopped the treatment
Teaching example with made-up numbers. Drug A: 80 patients took it and 16 had the event. 20 stopped it, mostly because they were sicker, and 8 of them had the event. Control: 90 adherent patients with 27 events, 10 who stopped with 3 events. The per-protocol analysis removes the sicker patients from the Drug A group only, so the groups are no longer comparable.

Risk ratio (ITT) = 24% ÷ 30% = 0.80

Risk ratio (per protocol) = 20% ÷ 30% = 0.67

Intention to treat (ITT), in the ICH E9 glossary, means that “subjects allocated to a treatment group should be followed up, assessed and analysed as members of that group irrespective of their compliance to the planned course of treatment”. ICH E9 uses the term full analysis set for the set as close as possible to this ideal. Excluding randomised patients is allowed only in a few justified situations: major eligibility violations, no dose of trial medication taken, or no data after randomisation.

Per protocol includes only patients who complied well enough with the protocol. ICH E9 warns that the bias “may be severe” because adherence may be related to both treatment and outcome. As-treated analysis groups patients by the treatment they actually received, which also breaks the randomisation.

Modified ITT has no single definition. A systematic review of 475 trials that reported a modified ITT analysis found that the descriptions were ambiguous and that 80% of these trials excluded patients after randomisation (Abraha and Montedori, 2010). The authors advise stating exactly who was excluded, instead of using the label. CONSORT 2025 asks for the definition of who is included in each analysis (item 21b) and how missing data were handled (item 21c). Complete-case analysis, single and multiple imputation, and sensitivity analyses for missing outcomes are explained in the missing data chapter of the Practical Statistics book.

Interactive

Change who stopped Drug A and watch the two risk ratios

The same trial as in the figure above. Only the per-protocol analysis depends on which patients stopped the drug.

Try this: raise the event rate in patients who stopped Drug A to 60% and watch the per-protocol risk ratio move away from the intention-to-treat risk ratio, which stays at 0.80.

Teaching example with made-up numbers: 100 patients randomised to Drug A (24 events in all) and 100 to control (30 events, 27 of them in the 90 who took the control treatment).

20 of 100
40%

Above 24%: they were sicker than average

Drug A group, 100 patientstook Drug A, eventtook Drug A, no eventstopped, eventstopped, no eventRisk ratio, Drug A vs controlno differenceIntention to treat0.80Per protocol0.670.00.51.0
AnalysisDrug AControlRisk ratio
Intention to treat24/100 = 24.0%30/100 = 30.0%0.80
Per protocol16/80 = 20.0%27/90 = 30.0%0.67

The patients who stopped Drug A had a higher event rate (40%) than the Drug A group as a whole (24%). Leaving them out makes Drug A look better.

The intention-to-treat result does not change, because every randomised patient is still counted in the group they were allocated to. Only the per-protocol analysis depends on who stopped.

Comparison

Intention to treat or per protocol: which one do you report?

FeatureIntention to treatPer protocol
Who is analysedEveryone randomised, in the allocated groupOnly patients who adhered to the protocol
RandomisationPreservedBroken, because adherence may depend on treatment and prognosis
Question answeredEffect of offering the treatment in practiceEffect in patients who take it as intended
In a superiority trialPrimary analysis. Usually underestimates the effect, which is a conservative errorSecondary analysis. May overestimate the effect
In a non-inferiority trialNot conservative: dropouts make the groups look more alike (ICH E9)Reported alongside ITT. Both should support the conclusion
ICH E9 nameFull analysis setPer protocol set

Type of comparison

Better, not worse, or the same?

Decide before the trial what you want to show. The hypothesis, the margin and the sample size all depend on that decision.

−Δ0+ΔSuperiorityCI entirely above 0Non-inferioritylower limit above −ΔEquivalenceCI inside −Δ and +ΔNot shownCI crosses −Δ-10-50510difference, new minus standard (percentage points)
Teaching example. Δ (delta) is the margin: the largest difference that is clinically acceptable. ICH E9 says it should be smaller than the differences seen in superiority trials of the active comparator, and must be justified clinically and fixed in the protocol. Non-inferiority uses a one-sided confidence interval and equivalence a two-sided one. The bottom row shows neither. ICH E9 calls it inappropriate to conclude equivalence or non-inferiority from a non-significant test of no difference.
DesignAimNull hypothesis (H₀)Conclusion when
SuperiorityNew treatment is betterNo difference between treatmentsThe confidence interval excludes 0 in the favourable direction
Non-inferiorityNew treatment is not worse by Δ or moreNew treatment is worse by Δ or moreThe lower confidence limit is above −Δ
EquivalenceDifference lies within ±ΔDifference is Δ or more in either directionThe whole confidence interval lies between −Δ and +Δ

A non-inferiority trial makes sense only when the new treatment has another advantage, such as lower cost, fewer adverse effects or oral instead of injected use. ICH E9 adds that the trial should keep the important design features (primary outcome, comparator dose, eligibility) of the earlier trials in which the comparator proved effective. The CONSORT extension for non-inferiority and equivalence trials (Piaggio et al., 2012) covers their reporting.

Margins, two one-sided tests and conclusions from confidence intervals are worked through in the equivalence and non-inferiority chapter of the Practical Statistics book.

Therapeutic equivalence or bioequivalence?

The New Drugs and Clinical Trials Rules, 2019 (rule 2(1)(f)) define a bioequivalence study as a study “to establish the absence of a statistically significant difference in the rate and extent of absorption of an active ingredient from a pharmaceutical formulation in comparison to the reference formulation having the same active ingredient when administered in the same molar dose under similar conditions”. ICMR 2017 (section 7.3) notes that these studies are usually done in healthy volunteers and are used as surrogates for clinical effectiveness data for generic drugs.

FeatureTherapeutic equivalence trialBioequivalence study
QuestionDo two treatments have the same clinical effect, within a margin?Is the active ingredient absorbed at the same rate and to the same extent from two formulations?
ParticipantsPatients with the conditionUsually healthy volunteers (ICMR 2017)
OutcomeA clinical outcome, such as cure or blood pressureDrug concentration in blood over time, summarised as peak concentration and area under the curve
Usual designParallel group2 × 2 crossover, described by ICH E9 as a common and generally satisfactory use of that design
Typical useA new treatment with another advantage over the standardA generic version of an approved drug

Designs by how patients receive treatment

Parallel groupRandomiseDrug A, whole trialDrug B, whole trialeach patient receives one treatmentCrossoverRandomiseAwashoutBBwashoutAeach patient receives both, in random order
Parallel group: the most common design for confirmatory trials (ICH E9). Crossover: each patient acts as their own control, so fewer patients are needed. It suits stable chronic conditions and treatments whose effect wears off during the washout. It does not suit curable conditions or outcomes such as death. Factorial: two treatments tested in one trial (A or not A, and B or not B). Cluster: whole groups are randomised, which is common for vaccines and health education, and needs a larger sample size.

ICH E9 (section 3.1.2) names carryover, “the residual influence of treatments in subsequent treatment periods”, as the chief difficulty of crossover designs. In the 2 × 2 design the carryover effect cannot be statistically distinguished from the interaction between treatment and period, and the test for it lacks power. So plan a washout long enough to prevent carryover instead of relying on a test afterwards. Analysis of crossover trials and other repeated measurements on the same patients is covered in the repeated measures chapter of the Practical Statistics book. Main effects and interaction in factorial trials are explained in the study designs chapter.

N-of-1 trials

one patientPair 1Active3Placebo6Pair 2Placebo7Active2Pair 3Active3Placebo6symptom score in each period (teaching values, lower is better)order decided by chance within each pair
Teaching illustration with made-up scores. Each pair of periods contains one period of the active drug and one of placebo, and chance decides the order within each pair. Lower bars mean fewer symptoms.

An n-of-1 trial is a randomised crossover trial in one patient. Guyatt and colleagues (1986) described double-blind trials in which a single patient receives a series of pairs of treatment periods, one active and one placebo or alternative treatment in each pair, with the order decided by random allocation. A symptom, sign or laboratory test chosen for that patient is the outcome. The design suits chronic, stable conditions and treatments whose effect starts and stops quickly, and it answers which treatment is better for that patient. N-of-1 trials are reported with the CONSORT extension for N-of-1 trials (CENT 2015).

Interactive

Move the confidence interval and the margin and watch the conclusion change

The conclusion depends on where the whole confidence interval lies compared with 0 and with the margin.

Try this: keep the difference at −2 and widen the confidence interval until non-inferiority is no longer shown.

Teaching example: difference in cure rate, new treatment minus standard, in percentage points. Values above 0 favour the new treatment.

Type of trial
10 points

Fixed in the protocol before the trial

−2 points
±5 points

A larger trial gives a narrower interval

−Δ−20−100+10+20difference, new minus standard (percentage points)

Shaded band: the conclusion is shown only if the whole confidence interval lies inside it. Dashed lines: the margin. Red dot: the observed difference.

Non-inferiority shown

Difference −2, confidence interval −7 to +3, margin 10

The lower limit (−7) lies above −Δ (−10).

Interim analysis

Can a trial stop early, or change its sample size while it runs?

Yes, if the protocol plans it. Every extra look at the results is another chance of a false-positive result, so the stopping rules are written into the protocol in advance.

ICH E9 (section 4.5) gives three reasons to stop a trial early: the superiority of the treatment is clearly established, a relevant treatment difference has become unlikely (futility), or unacceptable adverse effects are apparent. All interim analyses should be planned in advance and described in the protocol, and boundaries for stopping for efficacy usually require more evidence than boundaries for safety. An independent data monitoring committee reviews the unblinded interim results, as described under blinding above.

Analyses, each tested at p < 0.051234510
Chance of at least one false-positive result when the treatments are equal5.0%8.3%10.7%12.6%14.2%19.3%

Calculated for equally spaced analyses of accumulating data with a normally distributed test statistic. The same problem arises with many outcomes or subgroups, and methods of adjustment are in the multiple comparisons chapter of the Practical Statistics book.

01234test statistic (z)25%50%75%100%share of planned patients analysed at each look1.962.364.052.862.342.02
O'Brien-Fleming boundarysame boundary at every lookunadjusted 1.96
Teaching example with four planned analyses, after 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% of patients, and a two-sided significance level of 5% overall (boundaries calculated in Python). The trial stops for benefit if the test statistic crosses the boundary. The O'Brien-Fleming boundary needs very strong evidence at the first look (z above 4.05) and is close to the usual 1.96 at the end (2.02). A boundary that is the same at every look must be 2.36 throughout. The red line is one trial: it crosses 1.96 at the second look (z = 2.1), which would stop an unadjusted trial, but it crosses the O'Brien-Fleming boundary only at the final analysis (z = 2.5).

O'Brien and Fleming (1979) proposed a procedure that allows a trial to stop early when one treatment performs markedly better, with overall significance level and power virtually the same as a single final test. Schulz and Grimes (2005) note that such stopping methods adopt stringent criteria, meaning low nominal p values, at the interim analyses. ICH E9 also allows flexible “alpha spending function” approaches, which do not need the timing of every look to be fixed in advance.

Trials stopped early for benefit tend to overestimate the effect. Schulz and Grimes (2005) describe the estimate at early stopping as prone to exaggeration, “a random high”. Bassler et al. (2010) compared 91 trials stopped early for benefit with 424 similar trials that were not stopped early. The pooled ratio of relative risks was 0.71 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.77), so the benefit looked larger in the stopped trials, and the largest differences were in stopped trials with fewer than 500 events.

Sample size re-estimation: the sample size was calculated from an assumed SD or event rate. ICH E9 (section 3.5) notes that when event rates are lower than anticipated or variability is larger than expected, methods for sample size re-estimation are available without unblinding data. Teaching example: for a difference in means, the sample size is proportional to the square of the SD, so a planned SD of 12 that turns out to be 15 needs (15 ÷ 12)² = 1.56 times as many patients.

Adaptive designs allow “pre-planned changes to an ongoing trial without compromising the validity of conclusions” (Dimairo et al., 2020). Their ACE reporting guideline lists types such as sample size re-estimation, stopping early for efficacy, futility or safety, and multi-arm designs that drop futile or unsafe treatments. Changes that were not planned are not adaptations. They are reported as changes to the trial after it began (CONSORT 2025, item 10).

Reporting

What must a trial report contain?

CONSORT 2025 is a 30-item checklist and a flow diagram for reporting randomised trials. It replaces CONSORT 2010.

EnrolmentAssessed for eligibility (n = 260)Excluded (n = 60)Not meeting criteria (n = 38)Declined to participate (n = 15)Other reasons (n = 7)Randomised (n = 200)AllocationFollow-upAnalysisAllocated to Drug A (n = 100)Received allocated intervention (n = 96)Did not receive it, reasons given (n = 4)Discontinued intervention (n = 14)Lost to follow-up (n = 3)Analysed for primary outcome (n = 97)Excluded from analysis (n = 3)Allocated to control (n = 100)Received allocated intervention (n = 98)Did not receive it, reasons given (n = 2)Discontinued intervention (n = 6)Lost to follow-up (n = 2)Analysed for primary outcome (n = 98)Excluded from analysis (n = 2)
Teaching example with made-up numbers, using the four stages of the CONSORT 2025 flow diagram: enrolment, allocation, follow-up and analysis. The 14 patients who stopped Drug A are still analysed in the Drug A group. Only the 3 without primary outcome data are excluded, and the reasons are given (items 22a and 22b).
SectionCONSORT 2025 items
Title and abstract1a identified as a randomised trial, 1b structured summary
Open science (new section)2 trial registration, 3 protocol and statistical analysis plan, 4 data sharing, 5a funding, 5b conflicts of interest
Introduction6 background and rationale, 7 objectives on benefits and harms
Methods8 patient and public involvement, 9 trial design and framework (superiority, equivalence, non-inferiority), 10 changes after the trial began, 11 setting, 12a and 12b eligibility, 13 intervention and comparator, 14 outcomes, 15 harms, 16a sample size, 16b interim analyses, 17a and 17b sequence generation, 18 allocation concealment, 19 implementation, 20a and 20b blinding, 21a to 21d statistical methods
Results22a and 22b participant flow, 23a and 23b recruitment, 24a and 24b intervention delivery and concomitant care, 25 baseline table, 26 numbers analysed and effect estimates, 27 harms, 28 other analyses
Discussion29 interpretation, 30 limitations including generalisability

CONSORT 2025 added seven items, revised three and deleted one. The separate generalisability item of CONSORT 2010 is now part of item 30. The protocol counterpart is SPIRIT 2025.

Transparency

Why must a trial be registered before the first patient?

Registration puts the design, primary outcome and sample size on public record before any result exists. Readers can then check whether outcomes were changed, and whether trials with unfavourable results went unpublished.

  • Journals: ICMJE member journals consider a trial that began enrolment on or after 1 July 2005 only if it was registered before the first patient was enrolled.
  • Declaration of Helsinki 2024, paragraph 35: research involving human participants must be registered in a publicly accessible database before recruitment of the first participant.
  • Where: a WHO primary registry, or ClinicalTrials.gov. Trials run in India are registered in CTRI, including multi-country trials already registered elsewhere, with the other registry number entered as a secondary ID.

Clinical Trials Registry-India (CTRI)

Launched20 July 2007, by ICMR. Free, online and searchable (ctri.nic.in)
Mandatory since15 June 2009, for regulatory trials, by the Drugs Controller General (India)
Prospective only since1 April 2018. A trial that has enrolled its first participant can no longer be registered
LawNew Drugs and Clinical Trials Rules, 2019, rule 25(v): a clinical trial “shall be registered with the Clinical Trial Registry of India maintained by the Indian Council of Medical Research before enrolling the first subject”
ICMR 2017“All clinical trials must be registered with the Clinical Trial Registry-India (CTRI)” (section 7.1.10)
What is registeredInterventional, observational, bioavailability and bioequivalence, and post-marketing studies, AYUSH studies and postgraduate thesis studies
DocumentsEthics committee approval (mandatory), DCGI approval where applicable, and email confirmation from the listed contact persons
Data recordedSponsor, sites and investigators, ethics committee and approval status, condition, intervention and comparator, eligibility, method of randomisation, allocation concealment, blinding, outcomes, phase, target sample size, dates
WHO linkA primary registry of the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform since December 2008

Applying results

Will the trial result apply to your patients?

Internal validity asks whether the result is correct for the patients in the trial. External validity asks whether it applies to patients outside it.

Rothwell (2005) defines external validity as whether the results “can be reasonably applied to a definable group of patients in a particular clinical setting in routine practice”. Check the setting and centres, how patients were selected (the flow diagram shows how many screened patients were enrolled), how the intervention was delivered compared with your practice, which outcomes were measured and for how long, and whether harms were reported.

FeatureExplanatory trialPragmatic trial
QuestionCan the treatment work under ideal conditions?Does it work in usual care?
PatientsNarrow eligibility, highly adherentBroad eligibility, like patients in practice
Setting and deliverySpecialist centres, strict protocolUsual settings, flexible delivery
Result applies toPatients like those enrolledA wider range of patients
What it measuresEfficacy: the effect under ideal conditionsEffectiveness: the effect in routine practice
PRECIS-2 score1 (very explanatory) on each domain5 (very pragmatic) on each domain

PRECIS-2 (Loudon et al., 2015) scores nine domains from 1 to 5: eligibility, recruitment, setting, organisation, flexibility of delivery, flexibility of adherence, follow-up, primary outcome and primary analysis.

Decide

Which design and which analysis population?

Answer two or three questions about your trial. Each answer links back to its section.

Is there a proven effective treatment for this condition?

Which design and analysis: all possible answers
  • Placebo-controlled superiority trial: A placebo or no intervention is acceptable when no proven intervention exists (Declaration of Helsinki 2024, paragraph 33). Analyse every randomised patient in the allocated group (intention to treat).
  • Superiority trial, intention-to-treat analysis: Analyse every randomised patient in the allocated group. Patients who stop treatment reduce the observed effect, so a benefit that is still shown is a conservative estimate (ICH E9).
  • Superiority trial: ITT first, per protocol second: Keep intention to treat as the primary analysis. Define the per-protocol set before unblinding, report it as a secondary analysis and discuss any difference between the two.
  • Add-on placebo-controlled superiority trial: Every patient receives the proven treatment. Randomise to the new drug or placebo in addition. Intention to treat is the primary analysis.
  • Non-inferiority trial: Set and justify the margin before the trial. Use a one-sided confidence interval (ICH E9). Report both the full analysis set and the per-protocol set. Confidence is greater when both give the same conclusion.
  • Equivalence trial: Set a lower and an upper margin before the trial. Equivalence is shown when the whole two-sided confidence interval lies inside both margins (ICH E9). Report both analysis sets.

By specialty

Trial design problems by specialty

A new oral hypoglycaemic is compared with metformin, and the protocol says the aim is to show it is "as good".

That is a non-inferiority question. Set the margin before the trial and report both intention-to-treat and per-protocol results.

Common myths

Common mistaken beliefs

  • Myth: Allocating alternate patients, or by hospital number, is randomisation.

    These methods are predictable, so the recruiter can know the next allocation. Use a computer-generated sequence and conceal it.

  • Myth: Allocation concealment and blinding are the same thing.

    Concealment hides the next allocation before assignment and is possible in every trial. Blinding hides the treatment after assignment and is not always possible.

  • Myth: "Double-blind" tells you exactly who was blinded.

    Physicians gave 17 different interpretations of double blinding (Devereaux et al., 2001). CONSORT 2025 item 20a asks authors to state who was blinded.

  • Myth: Patients who did not take the drug should be excluded to show its true effect.

    Excluding them removes the comparability created by randomisation. In a superiority trial the primary analysis includes all randomised patients in their allocated groups (ICH E9).

  • Myth: A superiority trial with p > 0.05 shows that the two drugs are equivalent.

    Equivalence or non-inferiority needs a margin set in advance and a confidence interval within it. ICH E9 calls a conclusion based on a non-significant test "inappropriate".

  • Myth: Significance tests on the baseline table show whether randomisation worked.

    In a properly randomised trial, baseline differences are due to chance. Schulz and Grimes (2002) describe such tests as superfluous. Report the baseline values and judge whether any difference is large enough to matter.

Why this matters to you

Five consequences of running a trial unfairly

  1. Thesis not registered

    Since 1 April 2018 CTRI does not register a trial after the first participant is enrolled. Register after ethics approval and before enrolment.

  2. Paper not considered by journals

    ICMJE journals consider a trial only if it was registered before the first patient was enrolled.

  3. A common viva error

    Calling sealed envelopes in the ward "double blinding". Envelopes are a method of allocation concealment.

  4. Misreading papers

    A per-protocol result, or a non-inferiority trial with a wide margin, can make a less effective drug look acceptable.

  5. Patients receive treatments that work less well than reported

    Trials with inadequate allocation concealment exaggerated odds ratios by 41% on average (Schulz et al., 1995).

History

History of the controlled clinical trial

  1. 1747

    James Lind, aboard the Salisbury

    On 20 May 1747 began comparing six treatments then used for scurvy in 12 sailors. Oranges and lemons gave the clearest benefit. Published in A Treatise of the Scurvy (1753).

  2. 1948

    Medical Research Council, UK

    Streptomycin trial in pulmonary tuberculosis, with Austin Bradford Hill as statistician. Allocation followed random sampling numbers kept in sealed envelopes, unknown to the investigators. 55 patients received streptomycin with bed rest and 52 bed rest alone. Chest X-rays were graded by specialists who did not know the allocation.

  3. 1948

    W. J. Dixon and Alexander M. Mood

    Published a method for obtaining and analysing sensitivity data, the basis of the up-and-down design now commonly used to estimate the ED50 in anaesthesia research.

  4. 1979

    O'Brien and Fleming

    Proposed a multiple testing procedure that lets a trial stop early when one treatment performs markedly better, with overall significance level and power virtually the same as a single final test.

  5. 1982

    Sacks, Chalmers and Smith

    For the same six therapies, 79% of trials with historical controls but 20% of randomised trials found the new therapy better.

  6. 1986

    Guyatt and colleagues

    Described double-blind randomised trials in a single patient (n-of-1 trials), with pairs of treatment periods in random order.

  7. 1987

    Benjamin Freedman

    Proposed clinical equipoise: genuine uncertainty within the expert medical community about the preferred treatment.

  8. 1989

    CAST Investigators

    Encainide and flecainide, given to patients whose ventricular premature beats they suppressed after myocardial infarction, increased mortality compared with placebo. That part of the trial was stopped.

  9. 1995

    Schulz, Chalmers, Hayes and Altman

    In 250 trials from 33 meta-analyses, inadequate allocation concealment exaggerated odds ratios by 41%, and lack of double blinding by 17%.

  10. 1996

    CONSORT group

    First CONSORT statement on reporting randomised trials, published in JAMA. Updated in 2001 and 2010.

  11. 2001

    Devereaux and colleagues

    91 physicians gave 10, 17 and 15 different interpretations of single, double and triple blinding.

  12. 2004

    International Committee of Medical Journal Editors

    Published a statement on clinical trial registration. Member journals consider trials that began enrolment on or after 1 July 2005 only if they were registered before the first patient was enrolled.

  13. 2007

    Indian Council of Medical Research

    Launched the Clinical Trials Registry-India on 20 July 2007.

  14. 2009

    Drugs Controller General (India)

    Made CTRI registration mandatory for regulatory clinical trials from 15 June 2009.

  15. 2018

    CTRI

    From 1 April 2018, registered only trials that had not yet enrolled their first participant.

  16. 2019

    Government of India

    New Drugs and Clinical Trials Rules, 2019 (GSR 227(E), 19 March 2019), requiring CTRI registration before the first participant is enrolled.

  17. 2025

    CONSORT 2025

    Updated 30-item checklist with a new open science section, replacing CONSORT 2010.

Guidelines

Clinical trials in guidelines and regulations

CONSORT 2025, items 17a to 19

17a: “Who generated the random allocation sequence and the method used”. 17b: “Type of randomisation and details of any restriction (eg, stratification, blocking and block size)”. 18: the mechanism used to implement the sequence, “describing any steps to conceal the sequence until interventions were assigned”. 19: whether those who enrolled and assigned participants had access to the sequence.

CONSORT 2025, items 20a, 21b and 22a

20a: “Who was blinded after assignment to interventions (eg, participants, care providers, outcome assessors, data analysts)”. 21b: “Definition of who is included in each analysis (eg, all randomised participants), and in which group”. 22a: numbers randomly assigned, receiving the intended intervention and analysed for the primary outcome, for each group.

ICH E9 (1998), section 3.3.2

An equivalence margin “is the largest difference that can be judged as being clinically acceptable and should be smaller than differences observed in superiority trials of the active comparator”. Two-sided confidence intervals for equivalence trials, one-sided for non-inferiority trials.

New Drugs and Clinical Trials Rules, 2019, rule 25(v)

A clinical trial “shall be registered with the Clinical Trial Registry of India maintained by the Indian Council of Medical Research before enrolling the first subject for the trial”.

ICMR National Ethical Guidelines 2017, section 7.1.10

“All clinical trials must be registered with the Clinical Trial Registry-India (CTRI).”

Declaration of Helsinki 2024, paragraphs 33 and 35

A new intervention must be tested against the best proven intervention, with placebo acceptable “if no proven intervention exists” (33). Research “must be registered in a publicly accessible database before recruitment of the first participant” (35).

ICH E9 (1998), section 2.2.2

The primary variable “should be specified in the protocol, along with the rationale for its selection”. “Redefinition of the primary variable after unblinding will almost always be unacceptable.”

ICH E9 (1998), section 4.5

“All interim analyses should be carefully planned in advance and described in the protocol.” Boundaries for monitoring efficacy “require more evidence to terminate a trial early” than boundaries for monitoring safety.

New Drugs and Clinical Trials Rules, 2019, rule 2(1)(f)

A bioequivalence study is a study “to establish the absence of a statistically significant difference in the rate and extent of absorption of an active ingredient” from a formulation compared with the reference formulation.

Steps

Steps of a randomised controlled trial

  1. Write the question (patients, intervention, comparator, outcome) and one primary outcome that matters to patients. Search registries for similar trials, and check that there is genuine uncertainty about which treatment is better (clinical equipoise).
  2. Choose the design (parallel, crossover, cluster) and the comparison (superiority, non-inferiority, equivalence), and the control (placebo or active).
  3. Calculate the sample size (see the sample size chapter).
  4. Write the protocol and statistical analysis plan, including any interim analyses and their stopping rules. Have someone outside recruitment generate the random sequence, and plan concealment and blinding.
  5. Obtain ethics committee approval, and regulatory permission where the New Drugs and Clinical Trials Rules require it.
  6. Register in CTRI before the first participant is enrolled.
  7. Screen patients, obtain informed consent and enrol those eligible.
  8. Reveal each allocation only after enrolment, and give the interventions with blinding where possible.
  9. Follow up, record outcomes and adverse events, and report serious adverse events within the required time.
  10. Analyse by intention to treat as planned, with per-protocol and sensitivity analyses.
  11. Report with the CONSORT 2025 checklist and flow diagram, whether the result is positive or negative.

Reading a paper

Five checks on any randomised trial

  • How was the sequence generated, and was the allocation concealed (CONSORT 2025, items 17a and 18)?
  • Who was blinded: participants, clinicians, outcome assessors, analysts (item 20a)?
  • Were all randomised patients analysed in their allocated groups, and how many were lost (items 21b, 22a and 22b)?
  • Was the trial registered before enrolment, and does the reported primary outcome match the registered one (item 2)?
  • For a non-inferiority or equivalence claim, was the margin set in advance and justified?

Why is it called that?

Word surgery

“Blind”

In everyday speech

Unable to see.

In research

Unaware of which treatment a participant received. A blinded outcome assessor examines the patient but does not know the allocation.

“Control”

In everyday speech

Power over something, or keeping it in check.

In research

The comparison group: patients who receive placebo, usual care or an active comparator.

Memory trick

Concealment applies before allocation. Blinding applies after allocation. Intention to treat analyses patients as they were randomised.

Placebo

Latin placebo: "I shall please"

The first word of an antiphon in the Vespers of the Office of the Dead (Psalm 116:9 in the Vulgate). The medical sense, "a medicine given more to please than to benefit the patient", is recorded by 1785.

Random

Middle English randon: "impetuosity, speed"

"At random" (1560s) first meant "at great speed", and "haphazard" by the 1650s. Random allocation in a trial is not haphazard: it follows a generated sequence.

Trial

Anglo-French trial, from Old French trier: "to try, pick out"

First an examination in a court of law (mid-15th century), then any act of testing by the late 15th century.

Protocol

Greek prōtokollon: "first sheet glued onto a manuscript"

The first sheet carried the contents. A trial protocol is written before the trial and fixes its methods.

Blind

Old English blind: "destitute of sight"

In a trial, blinding means keeping people unaware of the allocation.

ITT

Intention · To · Treat

Patients are analysed in the group they were intended to be treated in, whatever treatment they actually received.

Exam answers

Model answer outlines

Randomisation: definition, need, methods and advantages

MD Pharmacology 2003, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2020, 2022, and undated · Ph.D. RM 2015, 2017, 2018 · MD Community Medicine 2018, 2023, 2025 · DM Neonatology 2024

Definition: allocation of participants to intervention groups by a chance process, so that neither the participant nor the investigator can choose or predict the group.

Why it is done:

  • Removes selection bias: the investigator cannot send milder cases to the new treatment.
  • Balances known and unknown prognostic factors between the groups, on average. Observational studies can adjust only for factors that were measured.
  • Allows allocation concealment and blinding, and gives a valid basis for statistical tests.

Clinical example: a physician gives a new antihypertensive to younger patients with milder hypertension. Their blood pressure falls more, partly because of who they are. Randomising patients to the new or the standard drug removes the physician's choice.

MethodHowAdvantageLimitation
SimpleComputer list or random-number table, each allocation independentUnpredictable, easyUnequal groups in small trials (20 patients: 26% chance of 7 : 13 or worse)
BlockBalance within blocks, e.g. 4 patients: AABB, ABAB, ABBA, BAAB, BABA, BBAAEqual group sizes throughout recruitmentLast allocations in a block can be guessed if the block size is known. Vary and hide block sizes
StratifiedSeparate block lists within strata (centre, severity, age band)Balance on important prognostic factorsToo many strata leave few patients in each
MinimisationEach new patient allocated to reduce imbalance across several factorsBalances many factors in small trialsNeeds a central computer system
ClusterWhole groups (villages, wards) randomisedCommunity interventions, avoids contamination between groupsNeeds a larger sample (design effect)
Unequal (2 : 1)More patients allocated to the new treatmentMore experience with the new treatmentMore patients needed for the same power
Within one patientChance decides which eye, side or lesion receives each treatmentEach patient is their own control, so fewer patients are neededOnly when one side cannot affect the other. Needs paired analysis

Process: generate the sequence (by someone not recruiting) → conceal it (central telephone or web system, or sequentially numbered, opaque, sealed containers) → enrol the patient, then reveal the allocation → report the method (CONSORT 2025, items 17a to 19).

Not randomisation: alternate patients, date of birth, hospital number, day of the week. The 1948 MRC streptomycin trial used random sampling numbers in sealed envelopes.

Allocation, concealment, randomisation, stratification, external validity, sensitivity analysis and Fragility Index

DM Neonatology 2025 · DM Critical Care Medicine 2022
  • Allocation: assigning each participant to an intervention group, in a stated ratio (1 : 1, 2 : 1).
  • Allocation concealment: a process that “keeps clinicians and participants unaware of upcoming assignments” (Schulz and Grimes, 2002). Central web or telephone randomisation, or sequentially numbered, opaque, sealed containers. Inadequate concealment exaggerated odds ratios by 41% (Schulz et al., 1995).
  • Randomisation: allocation by a chance process that cannot be predicted. Simple, block, stratified, minimisation, cluster.
  • Stratification: randomising separately within subgroups defined by a strong prognostic factor (centre, severity), usually with blocks, so each subgroup is balanced. Most useful in small trials.
  • External validity: whether results “can be reasonably applied to a definable group of patients in a particular clinical setting in routine practice” (Rothwell, 2005). Depends on setting, patient selection, intervention delivery, outcomes and follow-up. PRECIS-2 places a trial between explanatory and pragmatic.
  • Sensitivity analysis: repeating the analysis under different assumptions (different handling of missing data, per-protocol set, excluding protocol violations) to see whether the conclusion changes. Prespecified and post hoc sensitivity analyses are reported separately (CONSORT 2025, item 21d).
  • Fragility Index: in the group with fewer events, the number of patients whose status must change from non-event to event before p rises above 0.05. For binary outcomes. Walsh et al. (2014) found a median of 8 in 399 trials, with 25% at 3 or less, and in 53% of trials it was smaller than the number lost to follow-up.

Blinding: purpose, types, the double-blind procedure and unblinding

MD Pharmacology 2005, 2013, 2016, 2022, 2025 · Ph.D. RM 2021 · MD Community Medicine 1994, 2018 · MD Anaesthesiology 2013

Definition: keeping one or more groups of people unaware of the intervention a participant received, after allocation. Also called masking (ICH E9, section 2.3.1).

Purpose: prevents differences in care and co-interventions (performance bias), in outcome assessment (detection bias), in reporting of symptoms by patients, and in withdrawals between groups. Most important for subjective outcomes such as pain, nausea or quality of life.

  • Open label: everyone knows.
  • Single blind: the participant does not know, or the investigator does not (ICH E9).
  • Double blind: neither the participant nor the investigators and sponsor staff involved in treatment or evaluation know (ICH E9).
  • Triple blind: no fixed definition, usually adds outcome assessors or data analysts. Physicians give many different meanings to these labels (Devereaux et al., 2001), so state who was blinded (CONSORT 2025, item 20a).

Double-blind procedure:

  1. An independent statistician generates the randomisation list. Pharmacy or the sponsor prepares identical packs (appearance, taste, smell, packaging), labelled only with trial numbers.
  2. If the drugs differ in form, use the double-dummy technique.
  3. Each enrolled patient receives the next numbered pack. The code is held centrally or in sealed individual code envelopes.
  4. Investigators, patients and outcome assessors record data without knowing the allocation. Analysts work with groups labelled A and B.
  5. The database is cleaned and locked before the code is broken for analysis.
  6. Report who was blinded, how, and any unblinding.

Unblinding, and when it is allowed: for an individual patient when knowing the treatment is essential for care, such as a serious adverse event (ICH E9, ICMR 2017 section 7.4.1). For a planned interim analysis, by an independent data monitoring committee only. For all at the end of the trial. Every break of the blind, planned or accidental, is recorded and explained in the report.

Limitations: not possible for many surgical or device interventions, and distinctive adverse effects can reveal the drug. In those cases blind the outcome assessor and use objective outcomes.

Methods of randomisation are in the first outline above.

Randomisation and use of placebo in a drug trial

MD Pharmacology 2009
  • Randomisation: chance allocation that removes selection bias and balances prognostic factors. Methods: simple, block, stratified (see the first outline).
  • Placebo: an inert preparation identical in appearance to the active drug.
  • Uses: separates the drug effect from spontaneous change, the placebo effect, concomitant treatment and observer expectations (ICMR 2017), and makes double blinding possible.
  • Equipoise: randomising patients is ethical only when there is genuine uncertainty within the expert medical community about which treatment is better (clinical equipoise, Freedman, 1987).
  • Ethics: the Declaration of Helsinki (2024, paragraph 33) requires comparison with the best proven intervention unless none exists, or unless there are compelling scientific reasons and no added risk of serious or irreversible harm.
  • ICMR 2017 conditions: no established effective therapy, withholding therapy causes only temporary discomfort, self-limited disease, or an active comparator would not give reliable results.
  • Safeguards: add-on design, 2 : 1 randomisation to reduce placebo exposure, rescue medication, clear withdrawal criteria, close monitoring, and ethics committee review.

Randomised controlled trial: design, types and steps (two antihypertensive drugs)

MD Pharmacology 2025 · MD Paediatrics 2023 · DM Neonatology 2016 · MD Community Medicine 2010, 2013

Definition: an experimental study in which participants are allocated at random to an intervention or a control group and followed up for outcomes.

Types: by design (parallel, crossover, factorial, cluster), by comparison (superiority, non-inferiority, equivalence), by purpose (therapeutic, preventive such as vaccine trials, screening, diagnostic), by blinding (open, single, double), by setting (clinical trials in patients, field trials in healthy people, community trials in whole communities), by attitude (explanatory, pragmatic).

Steps, with an example comparing Drug A and Drug B in stage 1 hypertension:

  1. Question: in adults with stage 1 hypertension, does Drug A lower 24-hour ambulatory systolic BP at 12 weeks more than Drug B?
  2. Protocol: eligibility, interventions and doses, primary and secondary outcomes, superiority or non-inferiority, sample size from the SD of BP change and the smallest important difference.
  3. Ethics committee approval, then CTRI registration before the first patient.
  4. Consent and enrolment. Baseline BP measured with a validated device.
  5. Randomisation stratified by baseline BP, in blocks of varying size, with central concealed allocation.
  6. Double-dummy blinding if the tablets look different. BP measured by an observer unaware of allocation.
  7. Follow-up at fixed visits, adherence and adverse events recorded.
  8. Intention-to-treat analysis of the difference in BP change with its 95% confidence interval, per-protocol as a secondary analysis.
  9. Report with the CONSORT 2025 checklist and flow diagram.

Control and outcome: use a concurrent randomised control (placebo, active treatment, usual care or sham), not historical controls, which favour the new treatment (Sacks et al., 1982). Choose one patient-important primary outcome, and a surrogate only when it is accepted as a reliable predictor of clinical benefit (ICH E9). In CAST (1989), drugs that suppressed ventricular premature beats increased mortality.

Advantages: controls selection bias and confounding, allows blinding, strongest single-study evidence for cause and effect. Limitations: cost and time, ethical limits on what can be randomised, selected patients may limit external validity, rare and late harms are missed.

RCT, randomisation techniques and the major components of CONSORT

DM Neonatology 2020, 2024
  1. RCT: definition, design diagram (eligible population → consent → randomise → intervention and control → follow-up → outcome), types and steps as in the outline above.
  2. Randomisation techniques: simple, block, stratified, minimisation, cluster, with advantages and limitations as tabulated in the first outline. Add concealment and its methods.
  3. CONSORT 2025: 30-item checklist and flow diagram. Sections: title and abstract, open science (registration, protocol, data sharing, funding), introduction, methods (design, eligibility, interventions, outcomes, sample size, randomisation items 17a to 19, blinding 20a and 20b, statistics 21a to 21d), results (flow 22a and 22b, baseline 25, outcomes 26, harms 27), discussion (interpretation 29, limitations 30).
  4. Draw the flow diagram: enrolment, allocation, follow-up, analysis.

CONSORT statement: significance, components and flow diagram

DM Neonatology 2021 · DM Medical Oncology 2017, 2021

What: Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials. First published 1996, updated 2001, 2010 and 2025. CONSORT 2025 is a 30-item checklist and a participant flow diagram (Hopewell et al., 2025).

Significance: readers can judge a trial only if methods and results are reported fully. CONSORT gives the minimum set of items, is endorsed by ICMJE and many journals, and helps editors, reviewers and guideline writers appraise reports. It is a reporting guideline, not a quality score.

Components:

  • Title and abstract (1a, 1b).
  • Open science: registration (2), protocol and statistical analysis plan (3), data sharing (4), funding and conflicts (5a, 5b).
  • Introduction: background (6), objectives (7).
  • Methods: patient and public involvement (8), design (9), changes (10), setting (11), eligibility (12a, 12b), interventions (13), outcomes (14), harms (15), sample size and interim analyses (16a, 16b), sequence generation (17a, 17b), concealment (18), implementation (19), blinding (20a, 20b), statistical methods (21a to 21d).
  • Results: participant flow (22a, 22b), recruitment (23a, 23b), intervention delivery (24a, 24b), baseline data (25), outcomes and estimation (26), harms (27), ancillary analyses (28).
  • Discussion: interpretation (29), limitations (30).

Flow diagram: enrolment (assessed for eligibility, excluded with reasons, randomised), allocation (allocated, received or did not receive intervention), follow-up (discontinued, lost to follow-up, with reasons), analysis (analysed, excluded with reasons), for each group.

Relevance to the protocol: the companion SPIRIT 2025 statement lists protocol items. Planning randomisation, concealment, blinding, outcomes and analysis sets in the protocol makes CONSORT reporting straightforward. Extensions exist for cluster, crossover, non-inferiority and equivalence, pragmatic and other designs.

Phases of clinical trials, with designs, uses and phase II in detail

MD Nuclear Medicine 2025 · MCh Surgical Oncology 2009 · DM Medical Oncology 2024 · Ph.D. RM 2018 · MD Pharmacology 2009
  • Phase 0 (exploratory IND): very small subtherapeutic doses in a few people to check pharmacokinetics and target effect before larger trials.
  • Phase I (human pharmacology): first administration in humans, usually healthy volunteers, or patients for toxic drugs such as cytotoxics. Tolerance, safe dose range, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. Dose-escalation designs.
  • Phase II (therapeutic exploratory): see below.
  • Phase III (therapeutic confirmatory): larger randomised controlled trials, often multicentre, to confirm benefit and safety in the intended population. Basis for marketing approval.
  • Phase IV (therapeutic use): after approval. Uncommon adverse effects, effectiveness in practice, new populations, drug interactions, cost. If none of n patients in earlier trials had an adverse event, its risk can still be as high as about 3 ÷ n (rule of three, Hanley and Lippman-Hand, 1983).
  • Dose finding: up-and-down designs change each patient's dose by a fixed step according to the previous patient's response and estimate the ED50 with few patients (Dixon and Mood, 1948). Biased coin or continual reassessment designs are preferred for the ED90 or ED95 (Görges et al., 2017).

Phase II in detail:

  • First studies whose main aim is to explore therapeutic efficacy in patients (ICH E8).
  • Early phase II (often called IIa): does the drug show activity in the disease? Later phase II (IIb): which dose and regimen?
  • Designs: early studies may use concurrent controls or comparison with baseline status. Later studies are usually randomised and concurrently controlled (ICH E8). Dose-ranging studies compare several doses.
  • In cancer, single-arm trials measure response rate. Simon's two-stage design (1989) keeps the expected number of patients small when the drug has low activity. Randomised phase II designs are also used.
  • Outcomes are often short-term or surrogate markers. Results decide whether phase III is justified, and supply the dose and effect size for its sample size.

Phases describe the usual order of development. ICH E8 notes that study types and phases are not the same thing.

Phases of clinical trials in cancer, and Indian patients in multinational trials

DM Medical Oncology 2007

Phases in cancer:

  • Phase 0: target modulation in tumours at subtherapeutic doses, to decide early whether development should continue (Kummar et al., 2008).
  • Phase I: done in patients with cancer, not healthy volunteers, because the drugs are toxic. Dose escalation in small cohorts to find dose-limiting toxicity and the recommended phase II dose.
  • Phase II: response rate in a specific cancer, often single-arm (Simon two-stage) or randomised phase II.
  • Phase III: randomised against standard treatment, with overall survival, progression-free survival or quality of life as outcomes.
  • Phase IV: long-term and uncommon toxicity, use in wider populations.

Advantages of Indian participation: earlier access to new treatments for patients, data on how the drug works in Indian patients before approval here, training and infrastructure for Indian investigators and sites, faster recruitment.

Disadvantages and concerns: risk of enrolling poor or less literate patients without truly informed consent, a control arm that may be below the local best standard, uncertain access to the drug after the trial, disputes over injury compensation, and a drug that may be unaffordable in India once approved.

Safeguards in India: ethics committees registered with the Central Licencing Authority (NDCT Rules 2019, rules 7 to 9), CTRI registration before the first participant (rule 25), free medical management and compensation for trial-related injury or death (Chapter VI), audio-video recording of consent for vulnerable participants in trials of new chemical or molecular entities (Third Schedule), and post-trial provisions arranged in advance (Declaration of Helsinki 2024, paragraph 34). The Rules' preamble notes that the Supreme Court, in writ petition (civil) 33 of 2012, observed that new clinical trial rules should be finalised urgently.

Types of clinical trials, and the need for randomised trials in oncology

MCh Surgical Oncology 2008
Classified byTypesPrinciple and use
Phase0, I, II, III, IVStage of drug development
ControlUncontrolled, historical control, concurrent randomised controlOnly concurrent randomised control removes selection bias
DesignParallel, crossover, factorial, clusterCrossover for stable chronic conditions. Factorial answers two questions in one trial. Cluster for group interventions
ComparisonSuperiority, non-inferiority, equivalenceNon-inferiority when the new treatment is less toxic, shorter or cheaper
PurposeTreatment, prevention, screening, diagnostic, supportive careFor example, adjuvant chemotherapy, chemoprevention, screening mammography
AttitudeExplanatory, pragmaticEfficacy under ideal conditions versus effectiveness in usual care
BlindingOpen, single, doubleSurgical and radiotherapy trials are often open, with blinded outcome assessment
Patients per comparisonParallel groups, crossover, n-of-1An n-of-1 trial randomises pairs of treatment periods in one patient with a chronic stable condition
Dose findingDose escalation, up-and-downUp-and-down designs estimate the ED50 with few patients
Timing of analysisFixed sample, group sequential, adaptivePlanned interim analyses allow early stopping or pre-planned changes while keeping the false-positive rate controlled

Why randomised trials are needed in oncology:

  • Survival depends strongly on stage, performance status and biology. Surgeons and oncologists choose fitter patients for new treatments, so non-randomised comparisons overstate benefit.
  • Historical controls differ in staging methods, imaging and supportive care.
  • Most new treatments give modest gains, which only large randomised trials can detect reliably.
  • Response rates and other surrogate outcomes do not always translate into longer survival.
  • New treatments add toxicity and cost, which must be weighed against a measured benefit.

Impact: randomised trials decide the standard of care and guideline recommendations, and stop ineffective or harmful treatments from spreading.

Intention-to-treat versus per-protocol analysis, and modified intention to treat

DM Critical Care Medicine 2024 · MD Community Medicine 2023 · DM Neonatology 2021

Intention to treat (ITT): every randomised participant is analysed in the allocated group, irrespective of adherence (ICH E9). Preserves randomisation, reflects the effect of offering the treatment, and is conservative in superiority trials. Needs complete follow-up and a stated method for missing data.

Per protocol (PP): only participants who met eligibility, received a minimum exposure and had no major protocol violations. Estimates the effect when taken as intended, but can be severely biased because adherence is related to treatment and prognosis.

Worked example (made-up numbers): Drug A event rate 24/100 by ITT and 16/80 by PP, control 30/100 and 27/90. Risk ratio 0.80 by ITT and 0.67 by PP. Excluding the sicker non-adherent patients from Drug A makes it look better.

Which to use: superiority trials, ITT primary with PP as secondary. Non-inferiority and equivalence trials, both, because ITT is not conservative there.

Modified ITT (mITT): ITT with some randomised patients excluded, for example those who took no dose, had no post-baseline assessment or did not have the target condition confirmed. There is no single definition. In 475 trials reporting mITT, 80% excluded patients after randomisation and descriptions were ambiguous (Abraha and Montedori, 2010). Report exactly who was excluded and why (CONSORT 2025, item 21b), and show whether results change.

Non-inferiority trials: statistical design

DM Neonatology 2021 · MCh Surgical Oncology 2012
  1. When: an effective standard exists and the new treatment offers another advantage (less toxic, oral, cheaper). A placebo control would be unethical.
  2. Active comparator: proven effective in earlier superiority trials. Keep their important design features: outcome, dose, eligibility (ICH E9).
  3. Margin (Δ): the largest clinically acceptable difference, smaller than the effect seen for the comparator in superiority trials, justified clinically and fixed in the protocol (ICH E9).
  4. Hypotheses: H₀, the new treatment is worse than the standard by Δ or more. H₁, it is worse by less than Δ (or better).
  5. Analysis: one-sided confidence interval (commonly the lower limit of a two-sided 95% CI). Non-inferiority is shown when the lower limit lies above −Δ.
  6. Analysis sets: full analysis set and per-protocol set both reported. ITT is not conservative in this design.
  7. Sample size: based on the margin, the expected true difference, α and power. ICH E9 warns that assuming a zero true difference underestimates the size needed if the new drug is slightly less effective.
  8. Reporting: CONSORT extension for non-inferiority and equivalence trials (Piaggio et al., 2012). CONSORT 2025 item 9 asks for the framework.

For a binary outcome, assuming equal true cure rates p in both groups:

n per group = (Z1−α + Z1−β)² × 2p(1 − p) ÷ Δ²

Z 1−α
1.96 for a one-sided α of 2.5%
Z 1−β
0.842 for 80% power
p
expected cure rate in both groups
Δ
non-inferiority margin, as a proportion

Teaching example: p = 0.85, Δ = 0.10 → (1.960 + 0.842)² × 2 × 0.85 × 0.15 ÷ 0.10² = 200.2 → 201 per group

Allowing for 10% dropout: 201 ÷ 0.9 = 223.3, so recruit 224 per group.

Null hypothesis in clinical trials

DM Medical Oncology 2025
  • Null hypothesis (H₀): the statement the trial tries to reject. The alternative (H₁) is what the trial hopes to show.
  • Superiority trial: H₀, no difference between new treatment and control. H₁, a difference exists.
  • Non-inferiority trial: H₀, the new treatment is worse by the margin Δ or more. H₁, it is worse by less than Δ.
  • Equivalence trial: H₀, the difference is Δ or more in either direction. H₁, the difference lies within ±Δ. Tested as two one-sided tests (ICH E9).
  • Type I error (α): rejecting a true H₀. In a superiority trial, declaring an ineffective drug effective. In a non-inferiority trial, accepting an inferior drug.
  • Type II error (β): failing to reject a false H₀, such as missing a real benefit. Power = 1 − β.
  • A non-significant superiority result does not prove H₀. Look at the confidence interval.
  • Multiple outcomes, subgroups and interim looks increase the chance of a false positive unless planned for.
  • Five analyses of accumulating data, each at p < 0.05, give a 14.2% chance of at least one false-positive result when the treatments are equal. Group sequential boundaries, such as O'Brien-Fleming, keep the overall rate at 5%.

See the hypothesis testing chapter.

Bias and confounding in clinical trials

MD Pharmacology 2025 · MCh Gynaecological Oncology 2025
BiasStageWhat happensPrevention
Selection biasAllocationRecruiter influences who gets which treatmentRandom sequence with concealed allocation
Performance biasTreatmentGroups receive different care or co-interventionsBlinding of participants and staff, standard protocols
Detection biasOutcome assessmentOutcomes measured differently by groupBlinded assessors, objective outcomes
Attrition biasFollow-upLosses or exclusions differ between groupsComplete follow-up, ITT analysis, prespecified handling of missing data
Reporting biasPublicationOnly favourable outcomes or trials reportedRegistration, published protocol, report all prespecified outcomes

Confounding: a factor linked to both the treatment received and the outcome. Randomisation distributes known and unknown confounders equally on average, which observational studies cannot do. In small trials chance imbalance can still occur. Reduce it with stratified randomisation or minimisation, and adjust for prespecified prognostic factors in the analysis. Per-protocol exclusions reintroduce confounding.

Historical controls: patients treated in an earlier period differ in selection and care. For the same six therapies, 79% of trials with historical controls but 20% of randomised trials found the new therapy better (Sacks et al., 1982).

See the bias and validity chapter.

Clinical trial registration, registries and CTRI

MD Pharmacology 2025 · MD Community Medicine 2024 · Ph.D. RM 2017, 2019

Definition: public recording of a trial's key details (design, interventions, primary outcome, sample size, sponsor, ethics approval) in a registry before the first participant is enrolled.

Importance:

  • Reduces publication bias: trials with unfavourable results cannot disappear without trace.
  • Shows whether primary outcomes or analyses were changed after the results were known.
  • Avoids duplicate trials and helps patients and doctors find ongoing trials.
  • Required by journals (ICMJE, for trials starting on or after 1 July 2005), by the Declaration of Helsinki (2024, paragraph 35), by ICMR 2017 and by Indian law.

Registries: WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and its primary registries (including CTRI), ClinicalTrials.gov.

CTRI in India:

  • Launched by ICMR on 20 July 2007. Free online registry. WHO primary registry since December 2008.
  • Mandatory for regulatory trials since 15 June 2009. The NDCT Rules 2019 (rule 25) require registration before the first subject is enrolled.
  • Only prospective registration since 1 April 2018.
  • Registers interventional, observational, BA/BE, post-marketing, AYUSH and postgraduate thesis studies.
  • Needs ethics committee approval and DCGI approval where applicable. Records Indian sites, investigators, ethics committees, randomisation, concealment, blinding and outcomes. Updates remain publicly visible.

How CTRI improves transparency and accountability: named investigators, sites and ethics committees are public. CTRI checks trial details against the ethics approval, and this review has identified problems such as multicentre trials approved by one distant ethics committee and one investigator running many trials at once (Vardhana Rao et al., 2018). ICMR signed the WHO joint statement on results disclosure in May 2017. Limitations: analyses of CTRI records have found missing, inconsistent and non-standard entries (Pillamarapu et al., 2019).

Sample size in clinical trials: importance and determination

MD Pharmacology 2014, 2015, 2022 · DM Medical Oncology 2009
  • Importance: too small misses a real effect (type II error) and exposes patients without producing an answer. Too large wastes resources and gives more patients the inferior treatment. Ethics committees and CONSORT 2025 (item 16a) require the calculation and its assumptions.
  • Inputs: primary outcome, design (superiority or non-inferiority margin), α, power, smallest important difference, SD or control event rate, allocation ratio, dropout rate.
  • Two means: n per group = 2(Zα/2 + Zβ)² × SD² ÷ d². Two proportions: the two-proportion formula. Non-inferiority: based on the margin (see the outline above).
  • ITT dilution: ICH E9 notes that if the primary analysis uses the full analysis set, the expected effect may need to be reduced to allow for patients who stop treatment.
  • Adjust: divide by (1 − dropout rate), multiply by the design effect for cluster trials, and round up.
  • Changing the size during the trial: planned sample size re-estimation when the SD or event rate differs from the assumption (ICH E9, section 3.5), or a group sequential design, whose actual size depends on when a stopping boundary is crossed, up to a planned maximum.

Formulas and worked examples are in the sample size chapter.

Sampling methods in clinical trials

DM Medical Oncology 2024
  • Define the target population and eligibility criteria.
  • Recruitment is usually consecutive enrolment of eligible, consenting patients, a non-probability method.
  • Random allocation (simple, block, stratified) then assigns treatment, which provides internal validity.
  • External validity improves with broad eligibility, several centres and a record of screened and excluded patients (CONSORT flow diagram).
  • Report settings and locations (CONSORT 2025, item 11) and eligibility (item 12a).

See the sampling chapter.

Meta-analysis, RCT, cohort and case-control studies: principles, strengths and weaknesses

DM Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology 2021, 2023
DesignPrincipleStrengthsWeaknesses
Meta-analysisStatistical pooling of results from studies found by a systematic reviewMore precise estimate, examines consistency across studiesOnly as good as the included studies. Publication bias and heterogeneity
Randomised controlled trialParticipants allocated by chance to intervention or control and followed for outcomesControls confounding and selection bias, allows blindingCostly, ethical limits, selected patients, misses rare or late harms
CohortExposed and unexposed people followed forward for outcomesIncidence and relative risk, several outcomes, clear time sequenceLong, costly, loss to follow-up, confounding, poor for rare diseases
Case-controlPeople with and without the disease compared for past exposureQuick, cheap, suits rare diseases and several exposuresRecall and selection bias, gives odds ratio only, time sequence unclear

See the study designs and systematic review and meta-analysis chapters.

Randomised controlled trial of a new vaccine: issues and implementation

MD Community Medicine 2024
  • Phases: safety and immunogenicity in small groups (I, II), then a large efficacy trial (III), then post-licensure surveillance (IV).
  • Participants: usually healthy people, often children, so safety standards are high. Parental consent and assent of older children.
  • Outcome: laboratory-confirmed disease with a clear case definition, found by active surveillance for an adequate period.
  • Sample size: the disease is uncommon, so large numbers or high-incidence areas are needed.
  • Unit of randomisation: individuals for direct protection. Clusters (villages, schools) when indirect protection of unvaccinated contacts is to be measured, with a design effect.
  • Control: placebo or an unrelated vaccine in identical vials, keeping participants and assessors blinded. A placebo is unacceptable where an effective vaccine is already recommended.
  • Vaccine efficacy: VE = (ARU − ARV) ÷ ARU × 100, where ARU and ARV are attack rates in unvaccinated and vaccinated groups. Teaching example: ARU 2%, ARV 0.5% → VE 75%.
  • Safety: recording of adverse events following immunisation, an independent data and safety monitoring board, stopping rules.
  • Implementation: ethics approval, regulatory permission, CTRI registration, cold chain, trained field staff, community engagement, ITT analysis, CONSORT reporting.

Institution-sponsored randomised trial in an Indian ICU: conduct and limitations

DM Critical Care Medicine 2019

Conduct:

  1. Question with a patient-important primary outcome (mortality, ventilator-free days). Sample size, often large for mortality.
  2. Protocol and analysis plan. Consider a multicentre network to reach numbers.
  3. Ethics committee approval. For a new indication, route, dose or form of an approved drug used only for research, it may be an academic clinical trial that needs no permission from the Central Licencing Authority (NDCT Rules 2019, rule 28). Otherwise regulatory permission is needed.
  4. CTRI registration before the first patient.
  5. Consent: most ICU patients cannot consent, so consent comes from the legally acceptable representative (ICMR 2017). For vulnerable participants in trials of new chemical or molecular entities, the consent process is audio-video recorded (NDCT Rules 2019, Third Schedule).
  6. Central web randomisation, stratified by centre and severity, with concealment available at any hour.
  7. Blinding where possible, otherwise blinded outcome assessment and objective outcomes.
  8. Serious adverse event reporting, a data and safety monitoring board, ITT analysis, CONSORT reporting.
  9. In investigator-initiated research the institution acts as sponsor and is responsible for compensation or insurance for research-related injury (ICMR 2017, section 2.6.4).

Issues and practical limitations: time-critical enrolment at night, heterogeneous patients and variable usual care, co-interventions, difficulty blinding procedures and devices, high mortality needing large samples, limited funding and research staff, clinical workload of investigators, loss to follow-up after discharge, and delays in ethics and registration processes.

Kaplan-Meier analysis in an antiretroviral therapy trial

Ph.D. RM 2020
  1. Define the event: for example virological failure or death. Time origin is the date of randomisation.
  2. Record for each patient: time to event, or time to censoring (lost to follow-up, withdrawn, or event-free at the end of the study).
  3. Kaplan-Meier estimate: at each event time, the probability of remaining event-free = (number at risk − number of events) ÷ number at risk. Multiply these probabilities in sequence to obtain the cumulative survival.
  4. Plot a step curve for each arm, with numbers at risk shown below the time axis.
  5. Compare arms with the log-rank test. Estimate the hazard ratio with its 95% CI using a Cox model.
  6. Report median time to failure and event-free proportions at fixed times (for example 48 weeks), by intention to treat.
  7. Assumption: censoring is unrelated to prognosis. Heavy loss to follow-up in one arm biases the curves.

See the risk and survival chapter.

Ethics committee for clinical trials: constitution, registration, member secretary and legal expert

MD Pharmacology 2023

Constitution (NDCT Rules 2019, rule 7): at least seven members from medical, non-medical, scientific and non-scientific areas, with at least one lay person, one woman member, one legal expert and one independent member from a related field (social scientist, representative of a non-governmental voluntary agency, philosopher, ethicist or theologian). At least 50% of members are not affiliated with the institution.

Registration: the ethics committee applies to the Central Licencing Authority in Form CT-01 (rule 8). Registration is granted in Form CT-02 and is valid for five years unless suspended or cancelled (rule 9). Renewal is applied for in Form CT-01 ninety days before expiry (rule 10). Functioning follows the ICMR National Ethical Guidelines 2017.

Member Secretary (ICMR 2017): a staff member of the institution with knowledge of clinical research and ethics.

  • Receives, screens, circulates and maintains proposals, and categorises them for exemption, expedited review or full committee review.
  • Schedules meetings, prepares the agenda and minutes.
  • Organises documentation, communication and archiving.
  • Ensures training of members and the secretariat, and keeps SOPs up to date.

Legal expert (ICMR 2017): holds a basic degree in law, with experience. Reviews the informed consent document and translations, memoranda of understanding, clinical trial agreements, regulatory approvals and insurance documents, and informs members about new regulations.

Details are in the research ethics chapter.

Compensation for participation and for injury in clinical trials

Ph.D. RM 2019, 2020

Payment for participation (ICMR 2017, section 2.5): reimbursement of travel and incidental expenses, and payment for time, inconvenience and lost wages, in cash or kind. Participants do not pay for research-related tests or treatment. The ethics committee approves the amounts and checks that they are not an undue inducement.

Compensation for research-related harm (ICMR 2017, section 2.6): participants harmed by participation are entitled to financial or other assistance, and dependants to compensation in case of death. This applies to all arms, including control. In investigator-initiated and student research the institution acts as sponsor.

Regulatory trials (NDCT Rules 2019, Chapter VI):

  • Free medical management for injury, as long as required or until the injury is shown to be unrelated to the trial (rule 40).
  • Financial compensation for trial-related injury, permanent disability or death, paid by the sponsor. In death, to the legal heir (rule 39).
  • Serious adverse events are reported by the investigator within 24 hours. The ethics committee gives its opinion, an expert committee examines deaths, and the Central Licencing Authority decides the amount (rule 42).
  • Formula for death (Seventh Schedule): compensation = (B × F × R) ÷ 99.37, where B is the base amount of ₹8 lakh, F an age factor, and R a risk factor from 0.5 to 4.0 depending on the severity of the disease at enrolment. For non-permanent injury, the amount matches lost wages.

Principles: compensation depends on whether the injury is related to the trial. The informed consent document must describe medical management and compensation, and the sponsor gives an undertaking to pay before permission is granted. Full details are in the research ethics chapter.

Ethical issues in a trial of a new NSAID, and the double-blind crossover trial

DM Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology 2001

Ethical issues:

  • Scientific justification and adequate preclinical and earlier-phase data, ethics committee approval and regulatory permission.
  • Informed consent in the local language, voluntary participation and the right to withdraw.
  • Choice of control: active comparator where effective NSAIDs exist. Placebo only with rescue analgesia and short exposure (Declaration of Helsinki 2024, paragraph 33).
  • Exclusion or careful monitoring of people at high risk of gastrointestinal bleeding, renal impairment or cardiovascular disease. Monitoring of blood pressure, renal function and gastrointestinal symptoms.
  • Serious adverse event reporting, a data and safety monitoring board, stopping rules, free treatment and compensation for trial-related injury.
  • Confidentiality, CTRI registration, and publication whatever the result.
  • Clinical equipoise: genuine uncertainty in the expert medical community that the new NSAID is better or safer than the comparator (Freedman, 1987).

Double-blind crossover trial:

  1. Suited to a stable chronic condition, such as osteoarthritis pain, and a drug with a short-lived effect.
  2. Randomise each patient to a sequence: new NSAID then comparator, or comparator then new NSAID.
  3. Treatment period 1, then a washout period long enough for the first drug's effect to disappear, then treatment period 2.
  4. Identical capsules, or double dummy, so neither patient nor investigator knows the drug in either period.
  5. Measure pain and function at the end of each period.
  6. Analyse within-patient differences, and check for period effects and carry-over effects. In the 2 × 2 design carry-over cannot be statistically distinguished from the treatment-by-period interaction (ICH E9), so prevent it with an adequate washout.

Advantages: each patient is their own control, so fewer patients are needed. Limitations: carry-over, dropouts between periods, unsuitable for curable conditions or permanent outcomes.

Peer review: single-blind and double-blind

Ph.D. RM 2013
  • Peer review: evaluation of a manuscript by independent experts in the field before the editor decides to accept, revise or reject it. It checks originality, methods, analysis, interpretation and ethics.
  • Single-blind (simple blind): reviewers know the authors' identity, but authors do not know the reviewers. Reviewers can write freely, but they may be influenced by the authors' reputation, institution or country.
  • Double-blind: neither authors nor reviewers know each other. It reduces bias based on author identity, but anonymity is hard to maintain in small fields and when authors cite their own work.
  • Other models: open peer review, where identities or reports are published.
  • The word “blind” here means the same as in trials: unaware of identity.

See the publishing and IPR chapter.

Genetic counselling for inherited blinding diseases

MS OPHTHALMOLOGY 2024

Here “blinding” means causing blindness, not trial blinding.

  1. Confirm the diagnosis: clinical examination, imaging and electrophysiology, and genetic testing where available.
  2. Draw a pedigree of at least three generations, asking about consanguinity.
  3. Establish the inheritance pattern: autosomal dominant, autosomal recessive, X-linked or mitochondrial.
  4. Explain the risk to future children: autosomal dominant, 50% for each child of an affected parent. Autosomal recessive, 25% for each child of two carriers. X-linked recessive, 50% of sons of a carrier mother affected and 50% of daughters carriers. Mitochondrial, passed through the mother.
  5. Discuss options: carrier testing of relatives, prenatal or preimplantation genetic testing, and screening of at-risk relatives for early treatment.
  6. Counsel without directing the couple's decision, maintain confidentiality, and give psychological support.
  7. Plan care: low-vision aids, rehabilitation and education support, and follow-up as new tests or treatments become available.

The one thing to remember

Hide the next allocation from the person recruiting, and analyse every patient in the group they were randomised to.

Worked examples and flow diagram numbers are made up for teaching. Probabilities for simple randomisation use the binomial distribution with p = 0.5.

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Past papers

Every TNMGRMU question on clinical trials

Each one is answered in this chapter. Tap a sitting to open the university's own question paper.

  1. ×9RandomizationMD PharmacologyMD Pharmacology · May 2022MD Pharmacology · Aug 2020MD Pharmacology · Oct 2018Ph.D. RM · Jan 2018Ph.D. RM · Jan 2015MD Pharmacology · Apr 2014MD Pharmacology · Oct 2013MD Pharmacology · Apr 2003
  2. ×2Phases of clinical trialsMD Nuclear Medicine · Oct 2025MCh Surgical Oncology · Aug 2009
  3. ×2Intention to treat analysis Vs Per protocol analysisDM Critical Care Medicine · Jan 2024MD Community Medicine · Oct 2023
  4. ×2Write briefly on principles, strengths and weaknesses of meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, cohort studies and case controlled studiesDM Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology · Feb 2023DM Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology · Aug 2021
  5. ×1Confounding factors in clinical trialsMD Pharmacology · Oct 2025
  6. ×1Blinding and Unblinding – explain the purpose and conditionsMD Pharmacology · Oct 2025
  7. ×1Randomized Controlled TrialsMD Pharmacology · May 2025
  8. ×1Clinical trial registries and their importanceMD Pharmacology · Oct 2025
  9. ×1Block RandomizationMD Community Medicine · May 2025
  10. ×1Discuss the following concepts in clinical trials: allocation, concealment, randomization, stratificationDM Neonatology · Feb 2025
  11. ×1Null hypothesis in context of clinical trialsDM Medical Oncology · Feb 2025
  12. ×1BIAS in clinical trialsMCh Gynaecological Oncology · Feb 2025
  13. ×1How Clinical trial registry in India plays a role in improving transparency and accountability of clinical research?MD Community Medicine · Oct 2024
  14. ×1Issues & implementation of randomized controlled trial for a new vaccineMD Community Medicine · Oct 2024
  15. ×1Genetic counselling regarding potential blinding diseasesMS OPHTHALMOLOGY · Oct 2024
  16. ×1Discuss Randomized Control Trial, various randomization techniques and major components of CONSORT statementDM Neonatology · Jan 2024
  17. ×1Methods of randomization in randomized controlled trialsDM Neonatology · Aug 2024
  18. ×1Describe in detail about the various phases of clinical trials, its designs and usesDM Medical Oncology · Jan 2024
  19. ×1Describe the various sampling methods in clinical trialsDM Medical Oncology · Jan 2024
  20. ×1Constitution and Procedure for Registration of Institutional Ethics Committee of your Institution Planning to conduct Clinical Trials. Add a note on roles and responsibilities of Member Secretary and Legal ExpertMD Pharmacology · May 2023
  21. ×1Discuss briefly about Randomized Controlled TrialsMD Paediatrics · Oct 2023
  22. ×1Randomization- Types and its advantagesMD Community Medicine · Oct 2023
  23. ×1Significance of sample size in clinical trialsMD Pharmacology · May 2022
  24. ×1Double blinding procedure used in clinical trialsMD Pharmacology · May 2022
  25. ×1Regarding randomised clinical trials, explain the following terms: a. External validity. b. Allocation concealment. c. Stratification. d. Sensitivity analysis. e. Fragility IndexDM Critical Care Medicine · Aug 2022
  26. ×1What Is “CONSORT Statement”? What is the significance? Enumerate the major components of CONSORT StatementDM Neonatology · Aug 2021
  27. ×1Modified intention to treat analysisDM Neonatology · Aug 2021
  28. ×1Non-inferiority trialsDM Neonatology · Aug 2021
  29. ×1What are the consolidated standards of reporting trials (CONSORT) guidelines? Discuss the importance of each of these components of CONSORT guidelines with relevance to a clinical trial protocol and reporting?DM Medical Oncology · Aug 2021
  30. ×1Blinding in a Drug TrialPh.D. RM · Aug 2021
  31. ×1Describe randomized control trial and discuss various randomization techniques and consort guidelinesDM Neonatology · Nov 2020
  32. ×1How do you assess the Effectiveness of Anti-Retroviral Therapy for HIV Clinical trial using Kaplan - Meir Analysis?Ph.D. RM · Dec 2020
  33. ×1Explain “Compensation of Participation” in Clinical TrialsPh.D. RM · Dec 2020
  34. ×1Describe the conduct, relevant issues and practical limitations of conducting an institution sponsored randomized controlled trial in an India ICUDM Critical Care Medicine · Aug 2019
  35. ×1Describe clinical trial registration in IndiaPh.D. RM · Jan 2019
  36. ×1Describe the principles in compensation for participation in clinical trialsPh.D. RM · Jan 2019
  37. ×1Explain the role of blinding in randomized controlled trialsMD Community Medicine · May 2018
  38. ×1Explain why randomization is done in a randomized controlled trial?MD Community Medicine · Oct 2018
  39. ×1What are the phases involved in a clinical trials?Ph.D. RM · Jul 2018
  40. ×1Describe the need for randomization with an appropriate clinical examplePh.D. RM · Jul 2018
  41. ×1CONSORT diagramDM Medical Oncology · Feb 2017
  42. ×1Clinical trial registrationPh.D. RM · Jan 2017
  43. ×1What is randomization and how do you randomize subjects for clinical trials?Ph.D. RM · Jul 2017
  44. ×1Double blind clinical trialsMD Pharmacology · Oct 2016
  45. ×1Randomized controlled trialDM Neonatology · Aug 2016
  46. ×1Determining sample size in drug trialsMD Pharmacology · Apr 2015
  47. ×1Importance of sample size calculation in clinical trialsMD Pharmacology · Oct 2014
  48. ×1Blinding in clinical trialsMD Pharmacology · Apr 2013
  49. ×1What are the different methods of randomization and blinding?MD Anaesthesiology · Oct 2013
  50. ×1Discuss the steps of Randomised controlled Trial in detail for testing of efficacy of 2 antihypertensive drugsMD Community Medicine · Apr 2013
  51. ×1What do you understand by the term, “Peer Review”? Discuss the “Simple Blind” and “Double blind” Peer Review methodsPh.D. RM · Jul 2013
  52. ×1Describe the statistical design of a Non inferiority trialsMCh Surgical Oncology · Aug 2012
  53. ×1Randomization in clinical trialsMD Pharmacology · May 2011
  54. ×1Randomised controlled trial design and types in epidemiologyMD Community Medicine · Mar 2010
  55. ×1RandomisationMD Pharmacology · Mar 2009
  56. ×1Describe different phases of a clinical trial with particular reference to phase II trialsMD Pharmacology · Sep 2009
  57. ×1Randomization and use of placebo in a drug trialMD Pharmacology · Sep 2009
  58. ×1Determination of Sample Size for a clinical trialDM Medical Oncology · Feb 2009
  59. ×1Discuss various types ' of clinical trials, with respect to principles, study design, application and advantages and discuss in detail the need and impact of randomized clinical trials in OncologyMCh Surgical Oncology · Feb 2008
  60. ×1Discuas the phases of clinical trials in cancer. Enumerate the pros and cons of using Indian patients in multinational clinical trialsDM Medical Oncology · Feb 2007
  61. ×1Discuss the procedure of ‘Double Blind Clinical Trial’MD Pharmacology · Feb 2005
  62. ×1Discuss the major ethical issues that must be addressed in devising a clinical drug trial of a new NSAID (non steroidal anti inflammatory drug) in human subjects. How is a double blind cross over controlled trial done? (25)DM Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology · Apr 2001
  63. ×1Double Blind clinical trialMD Community Medicine · Apr 1994

Further reading

Related Stateazy articles